Company Analysis – Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

*These information are as of 07 February 2025.

1. Executive Summary

Key Points

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is a global biopharmaceutical leader specializing in innovative therapies for oncology, immunology, cardiovascular diseases, and neuroscience. Recent performance highlights include:

Q4 2024 Revenue: $12.3B (+8% YoY), driven by growth in key products like Eliquis (+11%) and Opdivo (+4%)1 5 15.
Full-Year 2024 Revenue: $48.3B (+7% YoY), with a GAAP net loss of $(4.41) per share due to acquisition charges.
2025 Guidance: Revenue projected at ~$45.5B (down ~6% YoY) due to generic competition, with adjusted EPS of $6.55–$6.85.

Investment Thesis

BMY presents a mixed outlook:

Strengths: Robust pipeline (10+ new molecular entities by 2030), strategic cost-cutting ($2B savings by 2027), and leadership in oncology.
Risks: Near-term revenue decline from patent expirations (Revlimid, Eliquis, Opdivo) and high debt ($10B repayment target by mid-2026).

2. Business Overview

What the Company Does

BMY develops and commercializes therapies for serious diseases, with key products:

Oncology/Hematology: Opdivo (cancer immunotherapy), Revlimid (multiple myeloma).
Cardiovascular: Eliquis (anticoagulant).
Neuroscience: Cobenfy (schizophrenia, approved 2024).

Industry Positioning

Leader in oncology and immunology, ranked among top global pharma companies by revenue.
Niche player in neuroscience after acquiring Karuna Therapeutics ($14B).

Competitive Landscape

Major Competitors: Merck, Pfizer, Roche, Johnson & Johnson.
Differentiation: Strong oncology portfolio (Opdivo), diversified pipeline, and strategic acquisitions (e.g., Karuna, RayzeBio).

3. Financial Analysis

Historical Performance (2020–2024)

Metric	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
Revenue ($B)	42.5	46.4	46.2	45.0	48.3
Net Margin (%)	15.2	18.9	20.4	17.8	-15.3
Operating Cash Flow ($B)	10.2	11.1	12.0	10.5	10.5

Key Ratios (2024)

Profitability: ROE = -16.64%, Net Margin = 17.83%.
Efficiency: Asset Turnover = 0.39
Valuation: P/E = -16.64, EV/EBITDA = 21.93
Leverage: Debt-to-Equity = 2.99

Cash Flow & Dividends

Generated $10.5B operating cash flow (2024)
Dividend yield = 4.14%

4. Growth Prospects

Market Opportunities

Oncology: Expanding Opdivo indications and cell therapies (e.g., Abecma).
Neuroscience: Cobenfy expected to generate $1B+ annually by 2030.

Management Guidance

Targeting $45.5B revenue in 2025 (-6% YoY) due to generics impact.
Prioritizing R&D reinvestment and cost optimization.

Innovation & R&D

Invested $28B in R&D over 2022–2024
Pipeline includes 50+ compounds, with 10+ potential approvals by 2030

5. Competitive Advantages (Moats)

Economic Moat Analysis

IP Portfolio: 30+ major lifecycle management indications in 2025–2030
Oncology Leadership: Opdivo remains a standard-of-care in melanoma and NSCLC

Sustainability

Moat durability hinges on successful pipeline execution and offsetting ~$10B revenue loss from generics by 2028

6. Risks

Industry-Specific

Drug pricing reforms (Inflation Reduction Act impact on Eliquis)
Generic competition for Revlimid, Eliquis, and Opdivo

Company-Specific

High debt ($10B repayment target by 2026)
Integration risks from acquisitions (e.g., Karuna)

7. Valuation & Recommendation

Intrinsic Valuation

DCF model suggests fair value of $464.62[User-provided prior analysis].

Comparative Valuation

Metric	BMY	Industry Avg.
P/E	-16.64	21.0
EV/EBITDA	21.93	13.5

Uncle’s thinking: Hold. Near-term risks offset long-term pipeline potential.

8. Conclusion

Key Takeaways

BMY’s growth portfolio (+21% in Q4 2024) shows promise, but generics will pressure revenue through 2025.
Cost-cutting ($2B by 2027) and pipeline execution are critical.

Actionable Insight

Monitor:

Cobenfy’s commercial uptake and Phase III trials.
Progress on debt reduction and margin improvement.

Guiding Principles Applied

Economic Moat: Strong in oncology but challenged by patent cliffs.
Valuation Discipline: High EV/EBITDA suggests limited upside.
Risk Assessment: Diversification needed to mitigate generics impact.